What will keep the operation safe?

Test tomorrow's conditions and find the lowest-cost qualifying capacity change.

Proof or refusal

Judge Challenge

The main demo: promotion demand rises 40% while one packing station is unavailable for 20 minutes.

All reviewed scenarios

Normal orders per hour/ hourPickers availableavailablePacking stations availableavailableRequired orders shipped within 20 minutes%

Service target: 90% / 20 min per case. Qualification: ≥90 of 100 fixed-seed recovery runs.

Adjust scenariocompound

Stress case

Demand increase%Demand starts atminDemand durationminUnavailable resourceCapacity reductionunitsOutage starts atminOutage durationmin

Reviewed default: Packing is unavailable for 20 minutes during the demand spike.

Reviewed sample values are ready.

Ready for analysisSeed 20260713

Decision preview

Risk, bottleneck, and the lowest-cost qualifying recovery will appear here.

No API key is required. Every number comes from the deterministic FlowTwin engine.

Evidence & audit trailMetrics · assumptions · seeds · replay · export

Run artifacts

Run the decision analysis to generate evidence.

Advanced model toolsGraph · provenance · JSON

Confirmed input / editable

Review the process model

Check how work moves through the operation. You can adjust available people or equipment, or continue directly to the stress test.

Project tools

Optional browser storage and sample controls.

Model valid. Changes are checked before FlowTwin can run them.Seed: 20260713

How work moves

Process overview

6 nodes · 6 edges

Routing check: Quality result routes total 100%.

Input confidence

Where the model values came from

Every value is tagged as explicit source evidence, inferred, defaulted, or confirmed by you. The full audit trail is available when you need it.

View source evidence and assumptions (5)

From source evidence
/horizonMinutes — The fulfillment operation runs for 8 hours (480 minutes).
From source evidence
/nodes/0/arrival/ratePerHour — The normal average arrival rate is 12 orders per hour.
From source evidence
/resourcePools/0/capacity — Three pickers share one common work queue.
From source evidence
/resourcePools/2/capacity — One packing station serves all approved orders.
From source evidence
/slas/0 — At least 90% of completed orders should finish within 20 minutes of arrival.

Advanced model data

For technical review or import/export. Invalid data is rejected before FlowTwin can run it.

Model JSON

{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "id": "northstar-fulfillment",
  "name": "Northstar Fulfillment",
  "description": "Synthetic fulfillment workflow for the OpsProof demo.",
  "timeUnit": "minute",
  "horizonMinutes": 480,
  "nodes": [
    {
      "kind": "source",
      "id": "orders",
      "name": "Order arrivals",
      "arrival": {
        "type": "poisson",
        "ratePerHour": 12
      }
    },
    {
      "kind": "service",
      "id": "picking",
      "name": "Picking",
      "resourcePoolId": "pickers",
      "serviceTime": {
        "type": "triangular",
        "min": 2.5,
        "mode": 3.5,
        "max": 5
      },
      "queueDiscipline": "fifo"
    },
    {
      "kind": "service",
      "id": "quality",
      "name": "Quality control",
      "resourcePoolId": "quality-inspectors",
      "serviceTime": {
        "type": "triangular",
        "min": 1,
        "mode": 1.5,
        "max": 2.5
      },
      "queueDiscipline": "fifo"
    },
    {
      "kind": "decision",
      "id": "quality-result",
      "name": "Quality result"
    },
    {
      "kind": "service",
      "id": "packing",
      "name": "Packing",
      "resourcePoolId": "packing-stations",
      "serviceTime": {
        "type": "triangular",
        "min": 2,
        "mode": 2.7,
        "max": 4
      },
      "queueDiscipline": "fifo"
    },
    {
      "kind": "sink",
      "id": "shipped",
      "name": "Shipping complete"
    }
  ],
  "edges": [
    {
      "id": "e1",
      "from": "orders",
      "to": "picking"
    },
    {
      "id": "e2",
      "from": "picking",
      "to": "quality"
    },
    {
      "id": "e3",
      "from": "quality",
      "to": "quality-result"
    },
    {
      "id": "e4",
      "from": "quality-result",
      "to": "packing",
      "probability": 0.95
    },
    {
      "id": "e5",
      "from": "quality-result",
      "to": "picking",
      "probability": 0.05
    },
    {
      "id": "e6",
      "from": "packing",
      "to": "shipped"
    }
  ],
  "resourcePools": [
    {
      "id": "pickers",
      "name": "Pickers",
      "capacity": 3,
      "costPerHour": 24
    },
    {
      "id": "quality-inspectors",
      "name": "Quality inspectors",
      "capacity": 1,
      "costPerHour": 30
    },
    {
      "id": "packing-stations",
      "name": "Packing stations",
      "capacity": 1,
      "costPerHour": 28
    }
  ],
  "slas": [
    {
      "id": "ship-20",
      "name": "Ship within 20 minutes",
      "metric": "cycle_time",
      "thresholdMinutes": 20,
      "targetPercent": 90
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": [],
  "provenance": [
    {
      "jsonPath": "/horizonMinutes",
      "status": "explicit",
      "sourceExcerpt": "The fulfillment operation runs for 8 hours (480 minutes)."
    },
    {
      "jsonPath": "/nodes/0/arrival/ratePerHour",
      "status": "explicit",
      "sourceExcerpt": "The normal average arrival rate is 12 orders per hour."
    },
    {
      "jsonPath": "/resourcePools/0/capacity",
      "status": "explicit",
      "sourceExcerpt": "Three pickers share one common work queue."
    },
    {
      "jsonPath": "/resourcePools/2/capacity",
      "status": "explicit",
      "sourceExcerpt": "One packing station serves all approved orders."
    },
    {
      "jsonPath": "/slas/0",
      "status": "explicit",
      "sourceExcerpt": "At least 90% of completed orders should finish within 20 minutes of arrival."
    }
  ]
}